Topic 3: CRUDE: SMUDY

In February 2025, crude oil prices fluctuated due to global market dynamics, geopolitical factors, and trade uncertainties. WTI crude oil prices peaked at $71.85 per barrel on February 19, marking a 1.57% increase from the previous day, before declining to around $69.66 by the end of the month. Brent crude prices hovered around $75.84 per barrel on February 19 and averaged approximately $78 per barrel for the month, with the Indian Basket price recorded at $75.57 per barrel on February 27. Several factors influenced these price movements, including supply disruptions that initially boosted prices, though expectations of a resolution in the Russia-Ukraine war tempered the gains. Global trade tensions and economic uncertainties also weighed on oil prices. Additionally, U.S. sanctions on Russia led to an 11% decline in India's crude imports from Russia, prompting Indian refiners to seek alternative suppliers like Iraq. As a result, India's total crude imports dipped slightly to 4.82 million barrels per day in February, down from 5 million barrels per day in January. Overall, the month saw volatility in crude oil prices, driven by shifting global demand patterns, supply chain adjustments, and geopolitical developments. Crude oil price predictions for March 2025 were shaped by various factors, including supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical uncertainty, and global economic trends. The gradual phase-out of OPEC+ production cuts was expected to increase supply, potentially lowering prices, while rising production from non-OPEC+ countries like the U.S., Canada, and Brazil could lead to a surplus, exerting further downward pressure. However, geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions posed a risk of supply disruptions, which could drive prices higher. A slowdown in global economic growth might reduce oil demand, though signs of economic recovery in certain regions could offset this decline. Additionally, the growing adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles, along with regulatory efforts to curb carbon emissions, was expected to influence long-term crude oil demand. Market volatility, driven by speculation, currency fluctuations, and production disruptions, also played a role in shaping price expectations. Considering these factors, predictions for Brent crude prices in March 2025 ranged between $70 and $80 per barrel, reflecting a complex and uncertain outlook



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